RISK PREDICTION OF PORTAL HYPERTENSION IN PATIENTS WITH HCV-ASSOCIATED LIVER CIRRHOSIS
Abstract
Background. The development of portal hypertension is a key aspect of natural disease course in HCV-associated liver cirrhosis. Although shear wave elastography has been validated for liver cirrhosis assessment, its role in the risk prediction of portal hypertension requires additional evaluation.Objective – to develop and estimate clinical prognostic model for portal hypertension risk assessment in patients with liver cirrhosis (HCV).
Materials and methods. A total of 388 patients were included in the study. Assessment of portal hypertension risk was based on logistic regression models. Odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals were calculated. External model validation was performed using testing data set.
Results. Two logistic regression models were developed: Model 1 included liver stiffness based on shear wave elastography only (κ = 0.106, AUC 56.0% (95% CI 47.8 – 64.3)); Model 2 included liver stiffness based on shear wave elastography, spleen length, platelets, and age (κ = 0.478, AUC 78.8% (95% CI 68.5 – 89.2)).
Conclusion. The combined use of additional predictors along with shear wave elastography has been shown to improve the prediction of portal hypertension in patients with HCV-associated liver cirrhosis.
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